Sources and methodology

KTrade estimates earnings of PKR 3.35bn (EPS PKR 2.5), down 40% YoY, with a PKR 2.5/share dividend expectation. This is an analyst estimate, not a reported result.

KTrade estimates EFERT revenue down 38% YoY and urea offtake down 40% YoY to 259kt, with urea share at 18% versus 34% a year earlier.

The report estimates gross margin at 30.8%, down 70bps YoY, and identifies higher oil prices and constrained LNG supply as risks to sector margins and production.

KTrade estimates 4QFY26 sector earnings of PKR 24bn, up 10% YoY but down 8% QoQ. Its estimate pairs 7% YoY local-volume growth and 8% YoY price growth with a 200bps gross-margin contraction.

The preview estimates total dispatches of 12.06mn tonnes, up 1% YoY and down 3% QoQ; export dispatches are estimated down 22% YoY and capacity utilization at 56%.

KTrade estimates LUCK total 4QFY26 dispatches at 2.46mn tonnes, up 11% YoY. MLCF is estimated at 0.95mn tonnes, down 5% YoY; the note specifically flags higher debt-related finance costs for MLCF as sector pressure.

Mari disclosed that majority-owned Sky47, through wholly owned Mari Technologies, launched Karakoram-01, described as Pakistan's first and largest purpose-built AI-ready data-center campus.

The disclosure positions the campus for enterprise-grade data center, sovereign cloud, AI computing, cybersecurity and managed services for government and enterprise users.

The disclosure gives no capex, revenue, EBITDA, utilization, customer, funding, or expected-return figures. Treat the launch as strategic evidence, not a quantified earnings catalyst until further disclosure.

Consolidated H1 2026 revenue was PKR 16.768bn, up 12.6% YoY, while profit after tax was PKR 559.9mn, down 23.8% YoY. Reported consolidated EPS was PKR 0.22 versus PKR 0.29.

Gross profit rose to PKR 2.840bn from PKR 2.738bn, but operating profit fell to PKR 834.1mn from PKR 941.4mn. Management commentary cites inflationary cost pressure and a 9% increase in marketing spend.

Consolidated H1 2026 net cash used in operating activities was PKR 651.1mn, versus PKR 1.148bn generated a year earlier; cash and cash equivalents ended at PKR 3.719bn versus PKR 4.132bn.

KTrade shows average policy rate at 11.17% in 2QCY26, with average 3M/6M/12M KIBOR at 11.84%/12.03%/12.43%, after the April policy-rate increase.

The report states sector deposits rose 5.7% QoQ, investments 1.5% QoQ, IDR reached 107.9% in June 2026 and ADR fell to 37.3%, reflecting a preference for sovereign securities amid weak private-sector credit demand.

KTrade expects sequential NIM compression because deposit funding costs reprice faster than earning assets; this is a banking-sector estimate, included here as a macro transmission signal rather than a view on any non-bank company.